RosterResource Chat – 11/22/24

Jason Martinez: Welcome to the first-ever RosterResource Dwell Chat at FanGraphs! At the very least certainly one of us (often each) can be doing this each Friday right now.

When you’re aware of me or Jon, I believe you already know that we take pleasure in speaking about something roster-related and can all the time attempt to give a considerate reply to any query. That’s not all the time perfect for a dwell chat the place you need to reply as many questions as potential. However having each of us right here will enable us to nonetheless try this as a lot as potential as we alternate answering questions.

And right here we go …

Jon Becker: Hiya and welcome everybody! Let’s get going with our first query…

Kate: Braves appeared to want Grant Holmes to lots of these different backend rotation choices all through the second half final 12 months.  You all are considering that modifications over the offseason?

Jon Becker: So I believe that is much less about Holmes in a vacuum and extra about Holmes in comparison with Anderson and Canning (the primary three rotation spots are locked in). They’re all out of choices, and Holmes is the one of many three with bullpen expertise, and he was nice in that position final 12 months.

Jason Martinez: Holmes earned a spot on the roster and his versatility offers the Braves an opportunity to discover the market through the offseason and likewise give their younger guys a glance within the spring. However looks like he’s locked in as certainly one of their 13 pitchers.

diadem: Is Johan Rojas’ .246 BA sufficient to maintain him taking part in? Platoon? vL or vR?

Jason Martinez: It was reported a couple of minutes in the past that Austin Hays can be non-tendered in order that clears issues up a bit for the second. However I don’t assume the Phillies need to go into 2025 relying on Rojas for greater than 300-350 PA. I believe they’re going all in on Soto and, in the event that they fall quick, would nonetheless pursue one other affect bat and push Rojas to 4th OF or AAA.

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: What’s the rule now on assured cash for arbitration-eligible gamers who’re tendered contracts? If the group tenders a contract, is any cash assured, or can the group minimize the participant with out penalty earlier than arbitration? How about after arbitration — is the contract assured then, and if that’s the case, how a lot?

Jon Becker: Nice nuts and bolts query, proper up my alley! If a participant is tendered a contract as we speak, then the group has to conform to a contract with him for 2025, both by agreeing by the deadline (January 10) or going to an arbitration listening to. Below the brand new CBA, contracts agreed to with no listening to are absolutely assured on the level of signing, however contracts determined through listening to aren’t absolutely assured. We noticed this final 12 months with J.D. Davis, who the Giants took to arbitration and have been in a position to launch after they signed Matt Chapman, owing him simply 30 days of termination pay as a substitute of the total contract.

drhotdog: been debating this with different angels followers – when do you assume Christian Moore will get referred to as up?  when do you assume he ought to?

Jason Martinez: Based mostly on how shortly they promoted Schanuel and Neto, there was hypothesis that Moore would get to the majors in 2024 earlier than he received damage. I nonetheless assume they plan on being aggressive, however it’s extra probably that his ETA is nearer to mid-2025 now. After all, he can change that if he’s crushing the ball in AAA.

Justin: What do you guys make of Profar’s market? Is he a lock to return to SD or do you assume an org offers him an enormous contract?

Jon Becker: The contract predictions I’ve seen for him are nearly all within the vary of $45-$48 million for 3 years, and if that’s all it takes I believe there’ll be fairly widespread curiosity. That stated, if the Padres are proper there with everybody else (not a certain factor contemplating their payroll) I’d be stunned if he went elsewhere.

Invoice: Marte get 1st likelihood at 3b for reds? Or are they procuring?

Jason Martinez: I’ve already been requested about my Opening Day projection just a few instances … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/reds … as a result of I’ve Santiago Espinal at 3B and Marte in AAA. That speaks extra to Marte not doing sufficient to be penciled into the Opening Day roster and Espinal being the lone potential “stop-gap” if he doesn’t get non-tendered as we speak. Perhaps Jeimer performs 3B however protection is shaky. Based mostly on that, you already know what I believe. They’re in search of an improve and, even when they nonetheless imagine in Marte, will make him earn the job by placing up massive numbers in AAA.

Keaton Arneson: If I may solely draft one Cleveland minor leaguer SP for this season solely who would it not be? Nikhazy, Messick, Wilkinson, or Peterson?

Jon Becker: Except I’ve received vital motive to imagine in any other case, I all the time aspect with the high-level man on the 40-man, which might be Nikhazy. Actually doesn’t damage he had a extremely sturdy season, too.

Jason Martinez: I say you must go together with the man nicknamed “Tugboat”.

Sox Fan: Purple Sox package deal for Crochet and/or different SP commerce targets?

Jason Martinez: I believe they’ve pretty much as good of an opportunity as any group on the market. Seems like they’re going to go massive in free company and don’t essentially have a transparent path for any of the “Huge 4” (Mayer, Teel, Anthony, Campbell). You most likely want 2 elite prospects to headline a package deal for Crochet and the Purple Sox are one of many few groups to have the ability to try this and never subtract from their MLB roster.

GA Blood: The Reds stated they need Steer to spend extra time on the infield subsequent 12 months. Any pontifications on how his positional breakdown would find yourself trying?

Jon Becker: This ties in properly with the Noelvi Marte query we received earlier: relying on how the offseason shakes out, it’s potential they slide Steer again to 3rd and Marte’s received to earn taking part in time elsewhere. One other risk is Matt McLain shifting to the outfield, the place he performed some within the AFL, and Steer slotting in at second.

Jon Becker: Proper now, we have now nearly all of Steer’s PT in left, primarily based extra on positional want: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=18

Colton: Assume the Pirates begin the season with Bubba on the roster? Now that they’ve misplaced the choose with Skenes not beginning the 12 months there

Jason Martinez: I don’t assume so. Not getting the draft choose will make them assume twice, however they’ve 5-6 good starters now … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/pirates … and I’d assume they’ll simply comply with the identical plan as Skenes in 2024. So possibly a month in AAA and see how issues shake out. After all, Jared Jones pressured his approach onto the Opening Day roster due to how dominant he was in spring. However I believe Falter and Ortiz have earned the prospect to at the least begin the season within the rotation.

Kate: Playing cards give Nootbaar one other shot as an on a regular basis man or is he a platoon bat going ahead?

Jon Becker: Nootbaar’s all the time greater than held his personal in opposition to lefties (he was truly higher in opposition to them by wRC+ this 12 months), and with 2025 being a rebuild/retool/reload/no matter you need to name it, there’s no motive to platoon him, neither is there a fantastic platoon associate for him within the org proper now anyway.

alexis anthopolous: SS is an apparent spot for enchancment for the braves, and there’s loads of Adames/Kim hyperlinks, however who’re some viable commerce candidates?

Jason Martinez: I believe the Purple Sox are going massive this offseason in free company however I’m wondering if buying and selling Trevor Story to clear some wage can be a part of that plan. It labored out with that Chris Sale man so possibly ATL would have an interest.

Jon Becker: Jorge Mateo is an alternative choice if his elbow surgical procedure restoration goes okay, and the Twins may properly store Carlos Correa, although they’d must eat some money.

Sox Fan: The place does Juan Soto land and a contact prediction?

Jon Becker: I’m on the Mets practice just because they’ll and presumably will supply probably the most cash, and I don’t foresee him a reduction of probably tens of hundreds of thousands to return to the Yankees. I’ve his contract at a really aggressive 15y/$692M, and I believe he clears $600M no downside.

Jason Martinez: I agree with Jon. I believe Steve Cohen is prepared to outbid everybody. Whether or not he clears $600M or $700M will depend upon how aggressive different groups can be.

Matt: What sort of contract do y’all assume Hyeseong Kim will get?

Jason Martinez: My guess is 4-yr, $64M. I believe he will get greater than $15M per season due to how good he was in 2023. Took a step again in 2024, which is why I believe it will likely be lower than 5 years. However there are simply not that many good shortstops on the market and solely 2 free brokers. And that helps his case rather a lot.

Oh sorry!!! I assumed you have been asking about Ha-Seong!. Studying these too shortly.

Jon Becker: Yeah, I believe that’s about proper for Ha-seong (backloaded with an decide out since he had shoulder surgical procedure, maybe?), although if I would like a shortstop badly on opening day I’d reasonably be aggressive for Adames, in fact. As for Hyeseong Kim (no relation, however they did play collectively!), I believe he does fairly just like Ha-seong’s first MLB contract of 4y/$28M, possibly rather less since he’s received rather a lot much less energy potential.

Adam: Will the Phillies truly “shake up the roster” like they stated? If that’s the case, who do you see them buying and selling/shifting?

Jon Becker: I’m certain they’d love to maneuver Castellanos and Taijuan Walker, although shifting even certainly one of them with out consuming a bunch of cash can be fairly miraculous, I’d say. By way of gamers who would truly garner an fascinating return, I believe Bohm and Stott might be fascinating, possibly even Ranger Suárez. The one actual untouchables are most likely Harper, Turner, Schwarber, Wheeler, Sánchez, Nola, Realmuto.

Insert Witty Title Right here: When you have been the Rox GM, how would you attempt to form the roster in a 5 12 months time-frame?

Jason Martinez: I all the time half-jokingly say that I might love for them to re-create the Blake Road Bombers after which I simply begin naming each dude that has plus-plus energy (Gary Sanchez, Gallo, and so on.) so as to add to their lineup. Even now, as a Padres fan, it looks like no lead is secure there and their lineup shouldn’t be terrifying in any respect.

In all seriousness, I do assume they’re making an attempt to construct a group round younger pitching and protection. They weren’t horrible on the finish of final 12 months and so they do have just a few younger guys who’re shut (Dollander) and Marquez/Senzatela are again from TJ surgical procedure.

Jon Becker: Yeah, it looks like they’re lastly concentrating on fascinating strikeout-heavy pitchers like Dollander and Brody Brecht as a substitute of falling in love with each man who throws a sinker. An enormous a part of constructing a group like that’s figuring out who to present massive contracts or extensions to, and so they’ve had some misses there (Bryant, Szenatela, all of the relievers a few years in the past, and so on.). The Tovar extension certain appears nice to this point, although.

Jack: Do you assume that if the Purple Sox have been supply Seattle a package deal of Duran and one of many massive 4, most definitely Mayer, which may lastly get Dipoto to chew on buying and selling certainly one of his pitchers?

Jon Becker: Yeah, I’ve seen Duran-for-[insert non-Castillo starter here] bandied about as a hypothetical however I don’t assume that will fairly sway Dipoto to even contemplate that a lot in any respect. in case you’re providing one man who’s a lineup pillar proper now and one other who might be one as quickly as midseason, I’d have a harder time saying no.

Lawless: How shortly does Jordan Lawlar rise up and may he keep at SS or transfer to 3B?

Jason Martinez: I believe he’s the kind of prospect {that a} group will make house for as soon as he exhibits that he’s prepared. Bringing Suarez again buys them some extra time in case he’s not, however I can see a state of affairs the place he takes over at SS and Perdomo strikes right into a bench position. Or if the Dbacks actually love Perdomo an excessive amount of at SS, possibly Suarez strikes into extra of a 1B/3B/DH position sooner or later and Lawlar performs 3B on most days.

mariners man: Josh Rojas non-tender — you want?

Jon Becker: We’ve gotten a few questions on Rojas particularly, and he’s an excellent instance about why the non-tender deadline being this early within the offseason makes for some robust choices. He’s a superbly enough — if uninspiring — common, however in non-tendering him now you run the danger of putting out on different choices and never with the ability to do significantly better. Having Austin Shenton round helps, although, so I may see this one going both approach forward of the 8 EST deadline.

diadem: Will Rodriguez and Bart cut up duties in 2025? What % of taking part in time for every.

Jason Martinez: In case anybody doesn’t bear in mind, Endy Rodriguez was on monitor to be the Pirates’ beginning catcher in 2024 earlier than injuring his elbow final winter. And he can hit! So it will likely be good to have him again. However with Bart trying like an excellent choice to play a majority of video games at catcher, they’ll ease Rodriguez again. So long as there may be some uncertainty at 1B/DH, they need to have the flexibility to play each much more than some catching tandems. However I can see a 50/50 cut up so long as Endy is wholesome with each getting DH at-bats.

Jon Becker: We simply received a query in about Henry Davis and it additionally ties again to an earlier query about commerce candidate catchers: Davis positively is one. Could possibly be a reverse-Joey Bart the place Davis himself finds much more success away from Pittsburgh.

Visitor: What’s your evaluation of the Angels’ strikes this offseason to this point?  They’ve been very energetic, however seemingly with none affect.

Jon Becker: That is mainly the Angels’ M.O. for current offseasons, going for names over expertise, although at the least with Newman, Hendricks, and d’Arnaud they’re not likely taking taking part in time away from somebody extra fascinating. Locking Soler in on day one of many offseason was … fascinating … although.

#1MetsFan: What number of ABs does Ronnie Mauricio get in 2025? O/U 200.5

Jason Martinez: I’ll go together with the “over”, though I don’t assume they’re going to plan their offseason round him being an enormous a part of the group. However vital to recollect, previous to his harm, that he’s such an excellent prospect that there was discuss shifting him to 2B, 3B, or LF simply to get him within the lineup. I believe he must re-establish himself in AAA after which he may power himself into the image once more.

Jon Becker: I’ll take the over, solely as a result of it’s such an extended season. Have a troublesome time seeing him crack the Opening Day roster assuming the Mets are as aggressive as we count on, although.

Jon Becker: And with that, we’re all set for this week! Thanks everybody for stopping by and we’ll see you subsequent Friday. Wishing a Pleased Thanksgiving to those that have fun!

Jason Martinez: We’re going to wrap it up for as we speak since Jon and I’ll have a busy afternoon updating rosters and payrolls as soon as non-tenders are introduced. Sometimes, I believe 90 minutes is feasible on most Fridays.

Thanks for becoming a member of us and bear in mind which you could all the time ship us questions on BlueSky (rosterresource.fangraphs.com / @jon-becker.com) or Twitter (@JasonRRMartinez / @jonbecker_).