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With lower than six weeks left till Choice Sunday, there may be nonetheless loads of intrigue on the one line, with six groups firmly within the combine for a high seed and some others lurking. At this level, Purdue is the one group with a agency grasp on a one seed. Right here’s a fast take a look at the opposite contenders:
• Alabama – Regardless of a blowout loss at Oklahoma over the weekend, the Crimson Tide nonetheless boast a robust case for a high seed. They rank within the high 5 of all group sheet metrics, personal six Q1 victories, have a 6-1 mark in true highway video games, and presently sit at 11-3 in Q1/Q2 video games.
• Arizona – The Wildcats boast a gaudy seven Q1 victories, together with 5 in Q1A. Arizona is 8-2 in highway/impartial contests and is 10-3 towards the highest two quadrants, all of which contribute to excessive rankings within the resume metrics whereas their high quality metrics lag barely behind. All three losses have come towards non-tournament groups, which hurts their case a bit.
• Houston – The case for the Cougars begins with high two rankings in the entire high quality metrics together with an ideal 8-0 mark in highway/impartial video games, together with wins at Virginia and on a impartial courtroom towards Saint Mary’s. A Q3 house loss to Temple hurts, however Houston continues to be 9-1 in Q1/Q2 video games.
• Kansas – Whereas the Jayhawks have probably the most losses of any of those groups, additionally they lead the nation in Q1 victories (8) and are 12-4 within the high two quadrants, together with 4 Q1A wins. Numerous KU’s greatest wins have come away from house, which has propelled them to excessive rankings in the entire results-based metrics.
• Tennessee – Very similar to Houston, Tennessee boasts a powerful NET and high quality metrics, however the Vols are additionally simply 7-3 within the high two quadrants. A impartial courtroom victory over Kansas pairs properly with Saturday’s house win over Texas, however an early loss to Colorado isn’t ageing significantly effectively.
Right here’s a fast refresher about how the NCAA choice committee classifies wins based mostly on the NET ranking:
· Quad 1: Dwelling vs. groups ranked 1-30 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 1-50 / Highway vs. groups ranked 1-75
· Quad 2: Dwelling vs. groups ranked 31-75 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 51-100 / Highway vs. groups ranked 76-135
· Quad 3: Dwelling vs. groups ranked 76-160 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 101-200 / Highway vs. groups ranked 136-240
· Quad 4: Dwelling vs. groups ranked 161-351 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 201-351 / Highway vs. groups ranked 241-351
The Bracket
The projections under are based mostly on all video games performed by January 30, 2023. Following the bracket, I included some fast notes on the final 4 in and first 4 out.
| LOUISVILLE (SOUTH) | KANSAS CITY (MIDWEST) | |
| Columbus – March 17/19 | Birmingham – March 16/18 | |
| 1) Purdue | 1) Alabama | |
| 16) F. Dickinson / SE Louisiana | 16) TN-Martin / UMES | |
| 8) North Carolina St. |
8) Northwestern | |
| 9) Missouri | 9) Florida Atlantic | |
| Orlando – March 16/18 | Albany – March 17/19 | |
| 5) Connecticut |
5) Saint Mary’s | |
| 12) Oral Roberts | 12) Liberty |
|
| 4) TCU | 4) Marquette | |
| 13) UC Santa Barbara | 13) Saint Louis | |
| Denver – March 17/19 | Columbus – March 17/19 | |
| 6) San Diego St. | 6) Illinois | |
| 11) Pittsburgh | 11) USC | |
| 3) Texas | 3) Iowa St. | |
| 14) Colgate | 14) Furman | |
| Sacramento – March 16/18 | Birmingham – March 16/18 | |
| 7) Auburn | 7) Duke | |
| 10) Boise St. | 10) Maryland | |
| 2) UCLA | 2) Houston | |
| 15) E. Washington |
15) Vermont | |
| LAS VEGAS (WEST) | NEW YORK (EAST) | |
| Denver – March 17/19 | Greensboro – March 17/19 | |
| 1) Arizona | 1) Tennessee | |
| 16) Milwaukee | 16) Southern | |
| 8) Michigan St. | 8) Iowa | |
| 9) Clemson | 9) Creighton | |
| Orlando – March 16/18 | Albany – March 17/19 | |
| 5) Indiana | 5) Rutgers | |
| 12) Charleston | 12) Kent St. | |
| 4) Baylor | 4) Xavier | |
| 13) Utah Valley | 13) Louisiana | |
| Sacramento – March 16/18 | Greensboro – March 17/19 | |
| 6) Miami (FL) | 6) Windfall | |
| 11) Oklahoma / Wisconsin |
11) Kentucky / West Virginia | |
| 3) Gonzaga | 3) Virginia | |
| 14) Princeton | 14) Southern Illinois | |
| Des Moines – March 16/18 | Des Moines – March 16/18 | |
| 7) New Mexico | 7) North Carolina | |
| 10) Arkansas | 10) Memphis | |
| 2) Kansas | 2) Kansas St. | |
| 15) Siena | 15) UNC-Asheville |
Final 4 In:
West Virginia – The committee doesn’t contemplate convention file, so the 2-6 mark in Large 12 play isn’t a problem in and of itself. Following Saturday’s win over Auburn, the Mountaineers at the moment are 3-8 in Q1 video games with no different losses and a trio of Q2 wins. They rank within the High 25 of the NET and have strong high quality metrics.
Kentucky – An enormous highway win at Tennessee is retaining Kentucky within the discipline at this level, however the Wildcats are simply 1-6 in Q1 with a This fall house loss to South Carolina. A victory over Texas A&M helps a bit for bubble functions, as do robust predictive metrics, however at 4-6 in Q1/Q2, Kentucky’s grip on an at-large bid is much from robust.
Oklahoma – Saturday’s blowout win over Alabama gave the Sooners’ resume an enormous enhance. They’ve additionally knocked off West Virginia at house and personal impartial courtroom wins over Florida and Seton Corridor. The predictive metrics are usually robust to go together with six Q1/Q2 wins. That stated, Oklahoma is simply 8-9 in non-This fall video games and has only one true highway win regardless of a 5-5 mark in highway/impartial contests.
Wisconsin – The Badgers have fallen to 74th within the NET and have predictive metrics which might be poor relative to different bubble groups. They’re 2-6 in Q1, however the two wins each got here on the highway at Marquette and Iowa. Wisconsin additionally has 4 Q2 wins, together with house wins over Maryland and Penn State to go together with a impartial courtroom win towards USC. Tyler Wahl’s harm will likely be thought-about by the committee, however it additionally isn’t a free cross for the video games Wisconsin misplaced with him sidelined. The Badgers are simply 7-8 in non-This fall video games heading into February.
First 4 Out:
Nevada – The Wolf Pack’s 4 greatest wins have all come at house, though they do have a 4-5 highway mark. Nevada is 6-6 within the high two quadrants with a pair of Q1 wins. In addition they don’t have any unhealthy losses and powerful results-based metrics, though their predictive metrics common out within the low 60s.
Penn State – It’s robust to see the Large Ten getting greater than 9 groups within the discipline, however the Nittany Lions are firmly within the combine. Their results-based and predictive metrics are all strong however unspectacular, however they don’t have any unhealthy losses and 4 Q1/Q2 victories, together with wins at Illinois and residential towards Indiana and Iowa. That Illinois win is PSU’s lone true highway victory although, which is one thing they’ll must rectify to get on the precise aspect of the bubble.
Texas A&M – The Aggies have performed extraordinarily effectively since SEC play started, however a poor non-conference power of schedule and a scarcity of high quality wins in non-conference play are working towards A&M. They’re 4-4 within the high two quadrants with a highway win at Auburn, a house win over Missouri, and a sweep of Florida. Eight of the Aggies’ 15 victories fall in This fall, and they’re additionally saddled with one loss in Q3 and one other in This fall.
Arizona State – A impartial courtroom win over Creighton falls in Q1A, and it’s presently ASU’s lone victory over a group within the at-large combine. The Solar Devils do have 4 true highway wins, together with victories at a Oregon and Colorado, however additionally they have a This fall loss to Texas Southern. The predictive metrics are all within the mid-60s with a non-conference power of schedule within the low 200s.
Convention Breakdown:
Large Ten (9): Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, Wisconsin
Large 12 (8): Baylor, Iowa St., Kansas, Kansas St., Oklahoma, TCU, Texas, West Virginia
ACC (7): Clemson, Duke, Miami (FL), North Carolina, North Carolina State, Pittsburgh, Virginia
SEC (6): Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee
Large East (5): Connecticut, Creighton, Marquette, Windfall, Xavier
Mountain West (3): Boise State, New Mexico, San Diego State
Pac-12 (3): Arizona, UCLA, USC
American (2): Houston, Memphis
West Coast (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s
Atlantic 10: Saint Louis
America East: Vermont
Atlantic Solar: Liberty
Large Sky: Japanese Washington
Large South: UNC Asheville
Large West: UC Santa Barbara
Colonial: Charleston
Convention USA: Florida Atlantic
Horizon: Milwaukee
Ivy: Princeton
MAAC: Siena
MAC: Kent State
MEAC: Maryland Japanese Shore
Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois
Northeast: Fairleigh Dickinson
Ohio Valley: TN-Martin
Patriot: Colgate
Southern: Furman
Southland: SE Louisiana
SWAC: Southern
Summit: Oral Roberts
Solar Belt: Louisiana
WAC: Utah Valley
Comply with Andy on Twitter (@andybottoms) for extra ideas on school hoops and to obtain an replace each time new brackets are posted.
Filed to: 2022-2023 Bracketology
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