Ke’Bryan Hayes Is Almost Elevating

If we’ve written it as soon as, we’ve written it a hundred times: Pirates third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes is a strong participant, but when he may simply determine how you can hit the ball within the air, he’d be a star. Properly, right here we’re in June 2023, and it seems that Hayes has lastly began elevating the ball some.

For the second season in a row, Hayes has knocked a minimum of 5 share factors off his groundball fee, elevated his hard-hit fee and common exit velocity, and greater than doubled his launch angle. And for the second season in a row, his general efficiency on the plate has stayed nearly precisely the identical. Let me say this very clearly: We had been improper. We’re so sorry. We’ll work to do higher sooner or later. Let’s check out what precisely Hayes has been doing to make liars out of us.

Earlier than we dive into the batted ball profile, Hayes’ plate self-discipline has been trending within the improper course. He’s making extra contact, however he’s chasing extra and swinging at fewer pitches within the zone. Whereas he may stand to be extra aggressive on the plate, that’s not the best way to go about it. Consequently, he’s lower about three factors off each his stroll fee and his strikeout fee. That’s not precisely a wash. Final 12 months, when Hayes didn’t put the ball in play, his wOBA was .209. This 12 months, it’s .154. Briefly, it’s extra vital than ever he produces when he makes contact.

His balls in play have been extra productive, however not by very a lot. His wOBA on contact is up 12 factors, and his xwOBA on contact is up 29 factors. Possibly he’s been a bit unfortunate, however we’re speaking a couple of participant who, a minimum of in concept, simply sewed up the best gap in his sport, and did so whereas hitting the ball more durable than ever. Why isn’t he off to the races? As a result of that gap has not, actually, been sewn up.

We’re not the liars; Hayes’ launch angle is the liar. Whereas the truth that a participant’s launch angle doesn’t inform the entire story is not necessarily a surprise, Hayes’ launch angle is a very crafty fabulist.

In practically each quadrant of the zone and in opposition to practically each pitch kind, Hayes has elevated his launch angle dramatically. Though it’d seem that Hayes is just following M.O.P.’s timeless advice, that’s removed from the entire story. Check out his 10 hardest-hit balls of the season to date.

There isn’t a fly ball within the bunch. Solely one in every of these balls had a launch angle above 3° or traveled greater than 89 toes within the air. Most of them had a adverse launch angle. I may maintain going with the enjoyable details: Solely three made it previous the pitcher’s mound on the fly. Solely three of those balls that he completely demolished made it to the outfield in any respect!

Final 12 months, Hayes’ floor ball fee was the seventeenth highest in baseball. This 12 months it’s the 61st. That’s an enormous enchancment, however when Hayes actually squares the ball up, he’s nonetheless very a lot hitting it on the bottom. Right here’s one other means to take a look at issues:

Hayes is hitting fewer groundballs, however that’s solely driving half of the rise in his launch angle. The opposite half is coming from the truth that he’s not beating these grounders straight down into the earth the best way he used to. Consequently, his efficiency on grounders has improved significantly. Sadly, his fly balls have carried out worse than they did final 12 months.

There’s a easy clarification for that: Hayes tends to hit his fly balls and line drives to heart area, and air balls do the least injury within the huge a part of the ballpark. Consequently, his wOBA tends to underperform his xwOBA dramatically. This 12 months, 41% of Hayes’ air balls went to heart, up from 38% final 12 months, and his wOBA on them is .429, 85 factors under his .514 xwOBA.

It’s most likely time to acknowledge that launch angle isn’t the one factor holding Hayes again. Thus far this 12 months, 152 gamers have hit a minimum of 40 fly balls. Hayes is one in every of simply 14 whose fly ball wOBA is worse than their groundball wOBA. Excluding wizards like Luis Arraez and Jeff McNeil, who can seemingly shoot grounders towards whichever gap they select, that’s not a listing you need to be on. As Nathaniel Grimm famous when writing about Hayes in Could, “Good energy hitters are aggressive throughout the pitch.” Except Hayes can exit and pull the ball extra or discover a technique to faucet into his energy when he’s elevating the ball, limiting his groundball fee can solely assist him a lot.

It is a story about how launch angle could be deceptive, nevertheless it’s additionally a narrative about how insanely low Hayes’ launch angle was once. Though the adjustments in his batted ball profile aren’t sufficient to show him into the star that all of us hope he’ll turn out to be, they’re all steps in the suitable course. That is the third 12 months in a row that they’ve trended that means. I do know I had a variety of enjoyable with Hayes’ 10 hardest-hit balls of the 12 months, however his launch angle on hard-hit balls remains to be 6.4° larger than it was final 12 months, and 5% extra of his hard-hit balls had been within the air this 12 months. He’s additionally tightened up the usual deviation of his launch angle by practically 3°. Hayes must be a bit extra aggressive, however the remainder of us would possibly simply want a bit extra persistence.

Thanks to reader 20longyears, who famous Hayes’ elevated launch angle throughout Ben Clemens’ chat final week.